Friday, March 27, 2009

The Race to Replace Gillibrand in the House

Scott Murphy, the conservative Democrat running to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the NY-20 special election next week,  now leads his Republican rival by 4 points according to the latest poll released by Siena Research. 

In very early trading on Intrade, however, the story is quite different. Republican Jim Tedisco still enjoys a 60-40 margin. Obviously, since only 61 shares have been traded, the contract is not yet a reliable indication of where things are headed over the weekend.  

Wiser Than The Crowd, in a post published before this morning's latest poll results were released, pegged the race at 50/50.

It's also unclear if and how the hatchet job published in today's NY Times about Kirsten Gillibrand's time as a lawyer at Davis Polk & Wardwell, a firm at which Politickr also once worked, will impact the race in the final weekend. 

Bottom Line - This is bound to remain a tight race, but there's an opportunity for some short term gains if you buy undervalued shares of Murphy now. He will likely benefit from even tepid endorsements from the White House and a last-minute push from the DNC.

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