Tuesday, May 18, 2010

Afternoon Predictions

NPR readers predict the winners of today's primaries - 60% think Lincoln will prevail in Arkansas, but 53% think it'll require a runoff. Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, and Mark Critz are also predicted to win.

Nate Silver says Joe Sestak is a 3:1 favorite in today's PA senate primary.
The political statistician also predicts that the Dems may soon be searching for a new senate candidate in CT following a Times report that Blumenthal lied about serving in Vietnam.

The Fix is holding a Primary Day Prediction Contest - So far, Wash Post amateur pundits are predicting a Sestak victory but are split over the race for Murtha's PA House seat.

Latest Intrade prices on today's primary races:

PA Senate: Sestak 80/Specter 20
PA-17: Repub Burns 58/Dem Critz 40
AR Senate: Lincoln 80/Halter 20
KY Senate: Paul 90/Grayson 20