Monday, July 16, 2007

National Journal Adopts Prediction Markets

Intrade announced today that it is partnering with the National Journal to bring online political prediction markets inside the Beltway. The new site, which should be available soon on the Journal's homepage, is bound to be a hit with politicos.

While Chris Masse of Midasoracle panned the partnership in a post today, we're decidedly more optimistic. This is exactly the kind of deal that lends credence to the industry and, better yet, encourages political junkies to battle it out with professional pundits.

Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Daily Prediction: Simon Says Obama Won't Be VP

Roger Simon, chief political columnist at The Politico, is convinced that it's the presidential nomination or bust for Barack Obama.

Already weighing Hillary's Clinton's VP possibilities, he notes: "There would be enormous pressure within the party for her to select Barack Obama. It would be a unifying choice, an historic choice and she wouldn’t do it in a million years."

Intraders, however, aren't nearly as convinced. Obama, who is trading at 19 for the Democratic VP nomination, is currently holding in second place on the site behind New Mexico Governor and fellow Democratic candidate Bill Richardson.

But Simon, who thinks Richardson comes with far too much baggage from the last Clinton administration, thinks Bill Clinton's former Energy Secretary is also an unlikely choice (Anyone who saw his pathetic performance on Meet The Press on May 27 would be inclined to agree.).

"Though Richardson would be pleased as punch to get the bid, though he would add geographic balance to the ticket and though he is a governor, which voters tend to like, somehow I don’t think it is in the cards," he said.

Bottom Line: Short both Obama and Richardson for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination and buy Evan Bayh and Mark Warner.

Tuesday, July 3, 2007

iPredict...The Start Of A Trend

MSNBC recently launched its own online political prediction market at Even after commuting Scooter Libby's sentence yesterday, participants still think President Bush will soon let Scooter skate scott free. Still, even if Bush pushes a full pardon, he is much less likely to fill another Supreme Court vacancy, at least according to the wisdom of the MSNBC crowd.

The cable network isn't the first news organization to announce its foray into political futures. Earlier this year, The Financial Times partnered with to create a fake-money trading game called FTPredict,where users compete for prizes by predicting the 2008 presidential nominees. The Chicago Sun-Times and ABC-KGO San Francisco have both launched prediction markets to track a variety of current events and, as noted here previously, Slate is pooling political prediction market results in the run-up to the 2008 election.

Which media organization will be next? Let the predictions begin!