Wednesday, November 28, 2007

Gingrich: Obama Will Win in Iowa

Newt Gingrich, polarizing politician-turned prolific predictor, is at it again. In an interview with Diane Sawyer on Good Morning America, the former Speaker of the House said the smart money is now on Obama in Iowa. "My guess is Senator Obama's going to win Iowa and that he's going to win it by a surprising margin," he said.

Just two months ago, however, Gingrich seemed convinced that Clinton was unstoppable. "I think the odds are 80 per cent that Sen. Clinton is the next president," he said after announcing that he didn't intend to compete for the Republican nomination in 2008. "I think she is almost certainly going to win the Democratic nomination."

So why is Newt suddenly hedging on Hillary? He says it's a hunch. "The emotional energy that Senator Obama's building is more powerful than the emotional energy Senator Clinton's building," he told Sawyer.

Slightly more scientific support for such speculation can be found in this week's latest ABC/Washington Post. Senator Obama has opened a slight, albeit still statistically insignificant, lead over Clinton and Edwards (30%-26%-22% respectively). On Intrade, the two top contenders are trading in a tie for the lead in Iowa at 45.

The Bottom Line: If you trust the former Speaker of the House with your money, invest in Obama to win in Iowa.

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