Monday, September 15, 2008

David Brooks: Bet on Obama

David Brooks, the conservative New York Times columnist, urged the presidential campaigns to "double down on weirdness" in a column last week that argued Obama was at his best early on in the campaign when he was at his most unconventional. While Brooks' advice to political traders was less explicit, he implied on the NewsHour with Jim Lehrer on Friday that wise traders should be doubling down on Obama. 

"I still think it's very unlikely McCain is going to win," said Brooks. "I still think the McCain campaign is basically like a football team with a weak offensive line. They have pulled off some good razzle-dazzle plays to stay close, but the fundamentals are so terribly against them."

Despite the tightening polls and renewed hand-wringing by breathless Democrats (noted in Gail Collins' column), it's not time for Obama to panic, said Brooks. "If I were them, I would not be changing strategy," he said.

Bottom Line - Traders should also not panic. The sudden Obama sell off that followed Palin's RNC speech provided a good opportunity to double down on the Democrat. If you haven't bought Barack's stock lately, now is the time to heed Brooks' advice. Obama is trading below 50 on Intrade and several points behind McCain. If nothing else, he's bound to rebound at least several points in the short term. Cash in while you still can.


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