Tuesday, October 7, 2008

How Low Can He Go? McCain Hits New Bottom

John McCain, whose stock has been tumbling along with the DOW, reached a new low on Intrade this morning when he briefly dipped below 30 for the first time since July. While he bounced back this afternoon to 30.5 in pre-debate trading, McCain's stock is now down close to 25 points from its early September high and at the lowest point since the financial crisis exploded three weeks ago.

In the last week alone, Clusterstock, which has been keeping one eye on the bloodbath on Wall St. and the other trained on the Republican candidate's collapse in the futures market, has featured the following headlines: "McCain Plummets with Stocks," "McCain Stock Collapse Resumes," "McCain's Stock Collapses," and "McCain Hits New Low."

With the latest Gallup tracking poll showing Obama up by 9 points, matching his highest lead to date in the campaign, and with the Real Clear Politics average putting him a healthy 5.5 points ahead, McCain needs nothing short of a complete Obama collapse in tonight's debate to recover on Intrade.

Nigel Eccles, the founder of Hubdub, pointed out in a web post that McCain's election prospects may be even worse than Intrade purports.

"Intrade is the only market maker showing McCain at above 30%," he said. "Betfair, ourselves (Hubdub) and UK bookmakers are showing him at around 23% and falling fast."

In a recent lengthy article in The New York Times on John McCain's ties to gambling, Jo Becker and Don Van Natta Jr. described the Republican nominee as an old hand at the craps table.

"For much of his adult life, Mr McCain has gambled as often as once a month, friends and associates said, traveling to Las Vegas for weekend betting marathons," they said. 

One has to wonder, however, if even gambler McCain would bet on his own stock in the current climate.

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