Tuesday, November 4, 2008

Politickr's Picks

With only hours to go before most returns come in, Barack Obama isn't the only sure bet.  Here are some other Intrade bargains you shouldn't overlook:

Buy Democrat Mark Begich to win Senate race in Alaska - Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services he received. Not surprisingly, Stevens' stock got slammed, losing roughly 25 points that afternoon. The chance of the convicted senator winning re-election is now nonexistent. If you haven't already, buy lots of his opponent.

Buy Obama to Win Colorado - NBC News moved Colorado into the lean Obama category last week, where the NY Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and several other news organizations have had the state for some time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll in Colorado in more than a month and a half (with the exception of a single Fox News poll in September) and now leads by an average of 6.5%. Obama to win Colorado is currently trading at 84 on Intrade. Don't miss out on the easy money.

Buy Voter Turnout >60% - According to FEC stats, 56.7% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2004 election. The Census Bureau reported that 64% of the voting age population showed up to the polls. Since every indication is that early voting numbers are higher than ever this year (NBC just reported that over 1 million early ballots have already been cast in NC), there is every reason to believe that more than 60% of the voting age population will vote. 

Buy Obama to Win Indiana - The early exit polling out of the state suggests Obama could well be the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (he's doing far better than Kerry even in Republican counties). The polls are tight, but the late trading is trending Democratic. Take a chance on this one.

Buy McCain to Win West Virginia - Most networks have so far refused to call this state, but CBS is projecting McCain will prevail. McCain is currently trading around 90, so there's easy money on the table.

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