Tuesday, March 9, 2010

Here Comes Health Care Reform

In a blog post this morning headlined "Health Care Resurrection," Paul Krugman alluded to the latest Intrade odds on reform. The likelihood of a health care overhaul is now trading at 62.5%, which is up nearly 10 points since yesterday and over 20 points since early last week.

Krugman claims he isn't completely convinced of the predictive power of political prediction markets, but he is keeping a close eye on Intrade.

"Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well," he said, "and judging from Intrade, health reform has gone from a long shot to more likely than not."

But Business Insider suggests there's a better reason to pay even closer attention to the Intrade price on health care than Krugman purports: "What we're witnessing is the equivalent of political insider trading," said Joe Weisenthal. "This doesn't just reflect conventional wisdom. No, this is Washington DC insiders speaking here."

Weisenthal contacted Intrade CEO John Delaney, who said that a lot of the volume on the health care contract is coming from the Washington DC area.

The Bottom Line - If you haven't already invested in the health care contract, now might be a good time to get on board. Senator Specter just told MSNBC "momentum is building." Dan Rather, Katty Kay, Andrea Mitchell, and Joe Klein all predicted on Chris Matthews' Sunday show that health care reform will pass. Health and Human Services Secretary Sebellius told David Gregory on Meet the Press on Sunday that "we'll have the votes." Rachel Maddow predicted last night on her show that health care reform can't be stopped. Even if Pelosi loses her grip on the House and Congressman Stupak and his Blue Dog supporters somehow thwart the final effort, the contract is likely to keep climbing on Intrade in advance of the final whip count.

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