Afternoon Predictions

NPR readers predict the winners of today's primaries - 60% think Lincoln will prevail in Arkansas, but 53% think it'll require a runoff. Rand Paul, Joe Sestak, and Mark Critz are also predicted to win.

Nate Silver says Joe Sestak is a 3:1 favorite in today's PA senate primary.

The political statistician also predicts that the Dems may soon be searching for a new senate candidate in CT following a Times report that Blumenthal lied about serving in Vietnam.

The Fix is holding a Primary Day Prediction Contest - So far, Wash Post amateur pundits are predicting a Sestak victory but are split over the race for Murtha's PA House seat.

Latest Intrade prices on today's primary races:

PA Senate: Sestak 80/Specter 20

PA-17: Repub Burns 58/Dem Critz 40

AR Senate: Lincoln 80/Halter 20

KY Senate: Paul 90/Grayson 20

Here Comes Health Care Reform

In a blog post this morning headlined "Health Care Resurrection," Paul Krugman alluded to the latest Intrade odds on reform. The likelihood of a health care overhaul is now trading at 62.5%, which is up nearly 10 points since yesterday and over 20 points since early last week.

Krugman claims he isn't completely convinced of the predictive power of political prediction markets, but he is keeping a close eye on Intrade.

"Betting markets don’t have any mystical power, but they do summarize conventional wisdom pretty well," he said, "and judging from Intrade, health reform has gone from a long shot to more likely than not."

But Business Insider suggests there's a better reason to pay even closer attention to the Intrade price on health care than Krugman purports: "What we're witnessing is the equivalent of political insider trading," said Joe Weisenthal. "This doesn't just reflect conventional wisdom. No, this is Washington DC insiders speaking here."

Weisenthal contacted Intrade CEO John Delaney, who said that a lot of the volume on the health care contract is coming from the Washington DC area.

The Bottom Line - If you haven't already invested in the health care contract, now might be a good time to get on board. Senator Specter just told MSNBC "momentum is building." Dan Rather, Katty Kay, Andrea Mitchell, and Joe Klein all predicted on Chris Matthews' Sunday show that health care reform will pass. Health and Human Services Secretary Sebellius told David Gregory on Meet the Press on Sunday that "we'll have the votes." Rachel Maddow predicted last night on her show that health care reform can't be stopped. Even if Pelosi loses her grip on the House and Congressman Stupak and his Blue Dog supporters somehow thwart the final effort, the contract is likely to keep climbing on Intrade in advance of the final whip count.

Paterson Probably Staying Put

As another disastrous week for NY's disgraced governor comes to a close, a majority of New Yorkers are now telling pollsters they want David Paterson to resign. But political prediction market traders at Intrade are growing more confident that the accidental governor isn't going anywhere.

As of this afternoon, Intrade gives Paterson a 55% chance of departing by July 1. The likelihood of him leaving office is down 18 points from yesterday's close, and 25 points from a high of 80% earlier in the week. While fewer than 400 shares have been traded so far, volume has picked up steadily during the last few days of the scandal.

Some pundits are crediting Al Sharpton's show of support for Paterson's improving prospects. Last night, at the second summit at Sylvia's restaurant since last Saturday, Al Sharpton and a number of prominent black politicians said that Paterson should stay put.

"Most of those in the room tonight strongly felt that the Governor should continue," said Sharpton.

Chris Cillizza, author of "The Fix" blog at the Washington Post, seized on Sharpton's statement in offering advice to a reader in a web chat today on whether to buy into an office pool on Paterson's resignation.

"I think he bought himself a little time when leading African-American leaders decided not to call for his resignation last night," said Cillizza. "Will paterson resign ultimately? I think it depends on what else -- if anything -- the New York Times has on him."

The Bottom Line - Traders would be wise to take Cillizza's advice. Barring another bombshell from the Times, the chance of Paterson leaving will likely continue to decline by the day, at least until Andrew Cuomo announces the results of his investigation.

Although increasingly isolated, Paterson is already trying to turn the page. He has political events planned for this evening and several scheduled for early next week. To that end, he appears determined to follow in the footsteps of the obstinate Mark Sanford and legendarily resilient Rod Blagojevich.

Whether another article, leak, or slew of staff resignations will ultimately force his hand, of course, remains unclear. But as long as he's able to buy time, traders should probably not buy the Paterson resignation contract.

John Stossel: Health Care Reform Will Pass

John Stossel, who profiled Intrade on ABC's 20/20 before the 2008 election, is still tracking political prediction markets. Although he has since left ABC for Fox Business, Stossel has not stopped citing the wisdom of the crowd.

In a post on his Fox Business blog this afternoon, Stossel proclaimed: "Obamacare is coming."

"Uh -oh...the Intrade betting odds that Obamacare will pass are now above 50%," he wrote. "That means that smart people who put their money where their mouths are now think that it is likely that some form of Obamacare will pass before June 30th. The odds dropped as low as 20% after Scott Brown's election, but as I write this, the trading is at 52 cents (winners win a dollar for each 52 cent bet."

As of this writing, the health care contract is trading just above 55, down from the 60% mark it reached yesterday.

White House Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, of course, gave traders reason to feel bullish about health care reform yesterday.

During his daily briefing, he said: "I literally believe that what I said on a television show this morning was the President leaves for Indonesia and Australia on March 18th, and we believe that -- I believe that, based on conversations that I've had in the building, that we're on schedule to get this through the House by then."

Politickr TV

Politickr, which tracks daily developments at prediction markets around the web, is going digital. Check out our first video on today's political trading news, and chime in with any ideas for future coverage.

The Race to Replace Gillibrand in the House

Scott Murphy, the conservative Democrat running to replace Kirsten Gillibrand in the NY-20 special election next week,  now leads his Republican rival by 4 points according to the latest poll released by Siena Research. 

In very early trading on Intrade, however, the story is quite different. Republican Jim Tedisco still enjoys a 60-40 margin. Obviously, since only 61 shares have been traded, the contract is not yet a reliable indication of where things are headed over the weekend.  

Wiser Than The Crowd, in a post published before this morning's latest poll results were released, pegged the race at 50/50.

It's also unclear if and how the hatchet job published in today's NY Times about Kirsten Gillibrand's time as a lawyer at Davis Polk & Wardwell, a firm at which Politickr also once worked, will impact the race in the final weekend. 

Bottom Line - This is bound to remain a tight race, but there's an opportunity for some short term gains if you buy undervalued shares of Murphy now. He will likely benefit from even tepid endorsements from the White House and a last-minute push from the DNC.

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NY Post Claims It's Caroline

While the NY Post has so far wisely resisted giving Caroline Kennedy the full Dick Gephardt treatment and plastering her picture on its front page under the headline "Patterson Picks Kennedy," it is certainly heading in that direction. In an article by Fred Dicker in this morning's paper, the Post proclaims that Kennedy is Governor Patterson's "certain" pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate.

Not surprisingly, Caroline Kennedy's stock shot up 19 points at Intrade in early morning trading, reaching 85 for the first time in weeks. As Wiser Than The Crowd points out, however, consistency on this point hasn't exactly been the Post's strong suit. Last month, it relegated the Queen of Camelot to a longshot, claiming she had a "1 in 20 shot at best."

As usual, the NY Daily News is striking a more measured tone. While it says that President-elect Obama is backing Kennedy, it stops short of claiming a decision has already been made.

"My BlackBerry is emitting smoke from people e-mailing me the latest rumor," said one Democratic operative quoted in the article. "This whole thing has taken on a life of its own. There may be a method to this madness, but it's madness."

Libby Pardon Before Bush Scoots?

Politico puts the odds of a Scooter Libby Pardon at 1 to 2, slightly lower than the current asking price at Intrade.

With so many pardon prospects and so little time, Intrade could open a whole new slate of contracts on crooks likely to get their convictions cleared before Bush vacates his office. According to Politico, the most likely candidates include Michael Milken (2 to 1 odds), infamous former AG A.G. (1 to 1 odds) and military and CIA interrogators (4 to 1 odds). 

While Dick Durbin is supporting a pardon for George Ryan, the latest Illinois governor to be convicted on corruption chares, Politickr doesn't think even Bush would have the audacity to pardon Ryan given his successor's shenanigans. 

Still, in his last interview before leaving office, Bush was suspiciously silent:

LARRY KING:  We're back with our remaining moments with the president and first lady of the United States.  Pardons; are we going to have some? You are not going to be specific.  Will pardons come? 

G. BUSH:  I am not going to talk about them. 

KING:  Why? They're logical. 

G. BUSH:  Because I don't feel like talking about them and I'm not going to.  If there are any coming, you will find out about it in due course. 

KING:  Due course, meaning you have a week. 

L. BUSH:  Exactly.  You will find out soon. 

G. BUSH:  Actually less. 

KING:  So it will be less than a week. 

G. BUSH:  Yes. 

KING:  You don't have to?  It's not required? 

G. BUSH:  No. 

KING:  You don't have to do any pardons? 

G. BUSH:  I don't have to do any. I can do some. Nor do I have to talk about it. 

Intrade Launches Contract on Senate Replacements

Politickr is pleased that Intrade has just added contracts about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's senate replacements, but is somewhat puzzled by the list of contenders, particularly with respect to Clinton.

Currently, of the three candidates listed as possible successors to Clinton, two have already withdrawn their names from consideration. Bill Clinton and Robert Kennedy Jr. have both said that they're not interested. While Andrew Cuomo, the third option, would reportedly take the seat, Caroline Kennedy, known for being much more coy than Cuomo, is reportedly also thinking about it. 

Since only one share has been traded on the Clinton replacement contract so far, Politickr strongly suggests adding several more names to the list, starting with Caroline Kennedy. According to Politico, other widely mentioned candidates include: Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Jerrold Nadler, Steve Israel, Nydia Velazquez and Brian Higgins, and Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi. 

New Real Money Prediction Site Coming Soon?

A tipster at the Political Prediction Markets group on Facebook reports that a new Costa Rica-based prediction market exchange called DaVinciTrade.net just entered Beta.

The new ".net" play money site, which still seems very bare bones, may be the testing ground for an Intrade competitor.       

"Word on the street is there is an up and coming '.com' real money site in the works," said our source.

Missed Opportunities at Intrade

Politickr, which had been taking a brief break from blogging during the transition, was hoping to spend much of it catching up on political day trading in cabinet posts on Intrade. Unfortunately, the prediction market seems to be taking too much of a breather of its own. 

Just when Intrade should be building on its incredible election momentum and boasting that it predicted the electoral vote exactly right (that lone, pesky Nebraska electoral vote notwithstanding), the site has strangely missed one opportunity after the next to keep politicos hooked.

Sure, there are the requisite contracts about the high-profile cabinet posts. But where is the contract about the next Commerce Secretary? Or Secretary of Health and Human Services? Or Head of the EPA? Why couldn't I invest in Obama's next chief of staff? And why is there a contract on Yahoo's next CEO but not one on who will be America's first CTO? 

When the Democrats met last week behind closed doors to vote on Lieberman's fate, Politickr looked in vain for the Intrade contract on his political future. Where is the contract on who will be named to Obama's Senate seat or Biden's? What about Hillary's replacement if the Secretary of State soap opera plays out the way it's been predicted? The list of potential short-term contracts is endless.

When Tradesports, the sports prediction exchange that was once part of Intrade, closed its doors this week, some nervous traders began to fret that Intrade might be next. But after this banner year for the site, Politickr highly doubted that anything was amiss. Still, the company has done very little to assuage such fears. Instead, by adding a contract about whether Intrade itself will still be in business next year, and removing its big ad for job applicants, a mainstay on the site during election season, the site only seems to be fueling such speculation. Far more disconcerting, however, is the lack of new political contracts on the site at a time when Intrade should be building on its buzz.

    

Politickr's Picks

With only hours to go before most returns come in, Barack Obama isn't the only sure bet.  Here are some other Intrade bargains you shouldn't overlook:

Buy Democrat Mark Begich to win Senate race in Alaska - Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services he received. Not surprisingly, Stevens' stock got slammed, losing roughly 25 points that afternoon. The chance of the convicted senator winning re-election is now nonexistent. If you haven't already, buy lots of his opponent.

Buy Obama to Win Colorado - NBC News moved Colorado into the lean Obama category last week, where the NY Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and several other news organizations have had the state for some time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll in Colorado in more than a month and a half (with the exception of a single Fox News poll in September) and now leads by an average of 6.5%. Obama to win Colorado is currently trading at 84 on Intrade. Don't miss out on the easy money.

Buy Voter Turnout >60% - According to FEC stats, 56.7% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2004 election. The Census Bureau reported that 64% of the voting age population showed up to the polls. Since every indication is that early voting numbers are higher than ever this year (NBC just reported that over 1 million early ballots have already been cast in NC), there is every reason to believe that more than 60% of the voting age population will vote. 

Buy Obama to Win Indiana - The early exit polling out of the state suggests Obama could well be the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (he's doing far better than Kerry even in Republican counties). The polls are tight, but the late trading is trending Democratic. Take a chance on this one.

Buy McCain to Win West Virginia - Most networks have so far refused to call this state, but CBS is projecting McCain will prevail. McCain is currently trading around 90, so there's easy money on the table.

Final Predictions

From Matthew Dowd and George Will to Alex Castellanos and Chris Matthews, the pundits all agree on one thing: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

With only one day left, the Huffington Post lists the unanimous presidential predictions from 24 pundits. While the verdict is unsurpring, the far more interesting nugget is the number of pundits predicting the Democrats will reach the filibuster-proof margin in the Senate: none. 

On The Page, Mark Halperin restates the obvious: "Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House."

Politico features its own Election Prediction Challenge, where strategists and scholars see things exactly the same way.

With Intrade predicting an 89.7% chance of an Obama victory going into the final day of trading (his highest price ever), where else can traders make money tomorrow? Check back later for Politickr's picks.

Don't Bet on Dems to Reach 60

Charlie Cook, appearing on Meet The Press this morning, predicted that Democrats will fall just short of the 60-seat filibuster-proof mark they're after in the Senate.

"I think they'll get to 59," he said, including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats in his tally.

Still, he was eager to hedge his bet. "Would I bet a dime on it? No," he said.

Predicting Obama's Chief Technology Officer

Intrade hasn't yet released its inevitable slew of contracts on the next president's possible cabinet appointments, but that hasn't stopped BusinessWeek from speculating about the names on Barack Obama's short list for Chief Technology Officer.

Obama, who pledged early on in his campaign to create the first cabinet-level position of Chief Technology Officer for the United States to expand broadband access and oversee a $50 billion venture fund for green technology, hasn't floated any names. BusinessWeek, however, citing Washington insiders, offered a few possibilities: 

• Vint Cerf, Google's chief internet evangelist
• Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft
  
• Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon
• Ed Felten, computer science professor at Princeton

A quick check of Hubdub and Predictify revealed no current contracts about the US's first CTO, so let us know what you think in the comments.

Recreational traders can chime in on Hubdub about how many Republicans will be in Obama's cabinet, whether Gore will serve in the administration, and whether Warren Buffett will be appointed Treasury Secretary. At Predictify, the focus is on how many women will be in Obama's cabinet and whether Colin Powell will get a nod.

Who's Behind Intrade Price Manipulation?

Someone has been keeping John McCain's stock, which had been plunging along with the Dow long before he ever invoked Joe the Plumber at the final debate, from sinking all the way down the drain. Intrade, which just revealed the results of its own internal investigation into the suspicious trading, fingered a single, rogue "institutional" trader for artificially inflating McCain's stock price and causing the mess. 

But even with a slew of major political news outlets now following the story, from CQ to Politico, there still seem to be more questions than answers. Why would a trader flush with funds sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into what surely looks to be a losing bet? Who could be behind the price manipulation?

A couple of theories seem to be emerging:

• In a post on Midas Oracle, one commentator suggested the culprit could be Centrist Messenger, the campaign advertising company that guarantees your money back if you bought an ad for the losing candidate. While it's apparent that the company has been hedging on Intrade, is it really possible that it's been spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on McCain just in case he pulls out a November surprise and it's forced to pay back devastated Obama supporters? 
• Clusterstock suggests that it could simply be a bullish McCain trader skeptical about the polls. While this may seem implausible on its face, it's important to remember the most dramatic Intrade success story reported in the media so far this year:

Just a couple of weeks ago, The Washington Post retold the story of Bethan Brome Lilija, a trader who risked $75,000 on McCain back when the Arizona Senator was low on money and had been left for dead by the pundits. On Intrade, his shares were down to around 5. 

John Stossel told the same story in his May 2008 report on 20/20.

Given Intrade CEO John Delaney's account of an "institutional" investor, the first scenario seems more likely. But at a time when the economy seems even gloomier than McCain's prospects, some traders are surely once again buying McCain for a buck and hoping to win the lottery.

 

Morning Prediction Roundup

Hillary Clinton heightens expectations: Asked whether Democrats will win in a landslide, she tells Good Morning America's Kate Snow "I think we're headed for a very big win." 

Joe Biden: We'll Win in West Virginia. "We're going to win in West Virginia," he said at an Ohio rally. "We're going to shock the living devil out of y'all." 

It may seem like pure bluster from Biden, but last week's ARG poll numbers suggest there could be something to his prediction. If you're convinced, this could be a buying opportunity: McCain currently leads on Intrade 60-36.

7-Eleven Predicts Huge Obama Win: Obama currently leads McCain 59-41 at the chain's stores, where those who support Obama can choose his blue coffee cup over McCain's red one. It's not exactly Intrade, but the 7-Eleven market has been surprisingly accurate over the last two presidential election cycles. In 2004, cup sales put Bush over Kerry by 2 points. In 2000, Bush led by a single percentage point. As for the bean race in the battleground states, Obama leads 61-39 in Virginia, but McCain is up 51-49 in N.C. and 53-47 in New Hampshire.

Scholastic News: McCain Should Worry. In a large poll conducted by Scholastic News of kids between pre-K and 12th grade, Obama won 57-39. Sure, that's Obama's vocal base. But USA Today puts the poll in context: student voters have been right 15 of the last 17 times. "The student voters - about 250,000 this year - have an 88% prediction rate. Only twice since 1940 have their results been at odds with the nation's: in 1948, when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, and in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon."

Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews Run for Senate in 2010? Politico keeps up the speculation.

At the open: Obama - 80; McCain - 20

Do I Have to Pay Taxes on This?

You jumped on the Barack Obama bandwagon early, and you're currently counting your Intrade earnings as you smile from ear to ear while checking the latest poll numbers. Obama's 14-point margin in today's NY Times poll (and his 80.3 price on Intrade today, his highest ever) seems so insurmountable that you're less concerned at this point about any so-called Bradley Effect than you are about one other pesky question about your profits: Do I actually have to pay taxes on this?

This was the question I posed last year to Philip Cleary, my good friend, who also happens to be a tax law expert and attorney at the IRS. At my urging, Philip decided to investigate the issue in depth in a law review article, which was recently published in the Virginia Tax Review. His paper, which is available in its entirety here, is the first of its kind - a thorough legal analysis of how prediction market investments should be treated under current tax law. Should they be treated as mere gambling earnings or taxed like other tangible commodities?

Philip is the first to acknowledge that the tax treatment of prediction markets is complicated. As a result, he is far more qualified to explain his paper than I, which he has graciously agreed to do in a forthcoming post. In the meantime, here is his Bottom line: 

"Prediction derivatives are logically seen as instruments of finance and taxed as their natural predecessor forward contracts based on tangible commodities. This approach is the correct one under current tax law."

"Prediction markets simply do not follow in the stead of online poker and off-track betting. They are targeted to different markets. The events of prediction markets are not one-time games but are connected to the socioeconomic events which shape our well-being. Even the nature of the return is more like that of financial instruments and not some oversized jackpot. Whereas wagering involves vice, prediction derivatives exhibit genuine social usefulness. At the very least, they help disseminate useful information."

Do you agree with Philip's approach? Have you been paying taxes on Intrade investments? Let us know in the comments.

The Next Step: Prediction Market Business Ideas

Silicon Alley Insider, which has recently become as obsessed with prediction markets as we are (Politickr likes to take at least some credit for this, dating back to its early days at SAI last year), is out with a few suggestions about how to turn prediction markets into an even bigger business:

• Provide political stock options to campaign employees -an admittedly far better motivator than pizza for overworked staffers on all those long nights (A good idea considering Politickr has learned from several very high-level campaign strategists that trading in markets like Intrade has become a popular hobby among staffers during this election cycle)
• Policy Hedges - SAI's post doesn't mention it, but there are already several startups in the works planning to do just this. By repackaging trading stats and selling them to lobbyists and hedge funds, companies are hoping to make money off those eager to hedge on policy.
• Campaign Financing - Does it make sense to give my gas money to this guy?Do certain events/strategies lead fat cats to give more? Individuals and campaigns alike could look to the markets to make funding decisions.   

Here are some more ideas we've been toying wth:

• Campaign Resource Allocations - McCain's recent decision to pull his dwindling resources out of Michigan, where he was seeing ever-diminishing returns, was likely made on the basis of polls. In the future, however, market analysis could provide much greater clarity on these types of questions. 
• Vetting VPs and Strategies - Currently, political prediction markets only ask questions like whether Romney or Palin will be picked as McCain's number two. One could imagine markets that examine the effects of rumors and other pereceived weaknesses on the campaign, which would be helpful to strategists war-gaming October surprises.
• Opposition Research - Does it make sense to spend money digging up dirt on a potential competitor who can't seem to raise money? Is it a good idea to bring up your opponent's tenuous ties to a 1960s radical at a time when voters are clamoring for change? Instead of asking focus groups, the campaigns could ask the markets.   

As political prediction markets explode in popularity, a host of cottage industries will inevitably develop. Since Politickr is already planning a few of its own, we don't want to give away the farm. But here are a few ways to take advantage of the boom:

• Political Prediction Market Consultants - The pollsters of the 21st Century, perfectly suited for the 24-hour news cycle. There's nothing the cable networks like more than charts and numbers. Some day, campaigns will hire consultants to run their internal markets and keep track of their options. Some day, these specialists will appear along side the James Carvilles of the world doing campaign analysis.
• Prediction Market News Agency - This is an idea I've been pushing with Henry Blodget at Silicon Alley Insider. With Intrade, IEM, Betfair, Hubdub, iPredict, Predictify, Hollywood Stock Exchange, News Futures, Media Predict, and others generating data daily on people's tastes in everything from politics and entertainment to tech and media, someone should be analyzing the info and generating stories for public consumption. After all, what good is having tomorrow's political news today if there's no one writing the article? This is what Politickr hopes to offer as soon as possible, provided it can secure funding.
• Equity Research for Political Prediction Markets - Traders are thirsty for info that can't be gleaned from reading The New York Times. Politickr can only track so many pundit predictions. Who will emerge as the Morningstar of political trading?
• Trading Training Sessions - Wherever Politickr goes, it talks up the potential of political prediction markets. Most people are intrigued, but very few have ever heard anything about them. To that end, they need to learn more and feel more comfortable before they invest. Politickr plans to start offering training sessions and meetups for beginners in coming days.
• New Markets - If the CFTC, which is currently weighing whether to grant markets full legal status in the US, goes as far as Politickr hopes, the impact will be enormous. New, U.S.-based trading exchanges will proliferate. Real money markets will emerge to help lawyers track the potential success of lawsuits, to assist tech companies in designing the next hot gadget, to predict which restaurants will succeed and even which amateur porn stars will make it big. While many of these markets already exist, participation is limited by the fact that traders can't yet put real money on the line in the US. 
  
• Prediction Market Think Tank and Lobbyists - The research suggests that prediction markets are more accurate than polls, but more studies are always needed. Someone needs to speak for the industry and lobby legislators on its behalf. 

If you, like us, are convinced that there's huge growth potential here, we strongly urge you to join us. We are working on many of these ideas, as well as one other highly secretive plan that we're keeping under wraps for now. We need your help and your ideas! If you're interested in getting involved, leave a comment, drop us an email, or join our Political Prediction Markets group on Facebook - Let's move the industry forward!