Intrade Launches Contract on Senate Replacements

Politickr is pleased that Intrade has just added contracts about Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama's senate replacements, but is somewhat puzzled by the list of contenders, particularly with respect to Clinton.

Currently, of the three candidates listed as possible successors to Clinton, two have already withdrawn their names from consideration. Bill Clinton and Robert Kennedy Jr. have both said that they're not interested. While Andrew Cuomo, the third option, would reportedly take the seat, Caroline Kennedy, known for being much more coy than Cuomo, is reportedly also thinking about it. 

Since only one share has been traded on the Clinton replacement contract so far, Politickr strongly suggests adding several more names to the list, starting with Caroline Kennedy. According to Politico, other widely mentioned candidates include: Reps. Carolyn Maloney, Jerrold Nadler, Steve Israel, Nydia Velazquez and Brian Higgins, and Nassau County exec Tom Suozzi. 

Don't Bet on Dems to Reach 60

Charlie Cook, appearing on Meet The Press this morning, predicted that Democrats will fall just short of the 60-seat filibuster-proof mark they're after in the Senate.

"I think they'll get to 59," he said, including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats in his tally.

Still, he was eager to hedge his bet. "Would I bet a dime on it? No," he said.

Will Dems Reach 'Magic 60'? Traders Say Not So Fast

After an early fall fraught with fear of another quadrennial collapse, even the most white-knuckled Democrats are beginning to believe the latest polls that show victory finally within reach.

Obama, of course, will make history however he winds up in Washington. But with Intrade currently projecting that he could win 364 electoral votes (and maybe as many as 375, if he wrests Indiana from the Republican column for the first time since 1964), Obama could even come close to Clinton's 1996 drubbing of Dole (379-159). As a result, some sanguine strategists and pollsters are beginning to whisper about another once-unthinkable objective: Reaching the magical 60 mark in the Senate.

Stuart Rothenberg, editor of the nonpartisan Rothenberg Political Report, told CNN that the filibuster-proof margin is no longer a fantasy. "It's the perfect storm," he said. "You've got Republican voters angry at Republicans, many Americans just petrified about the future...wanting change. And right now change appears to be coming in the form of Democrats."

Even the much-maligned Mark Penn seems to think that Democrats are capable of mounting the type of landslide necessary to usher in their first ironclad margin in the Senate since 1977.

While Larry Sabato, director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia, predicted Democrats will reach 60 seats. Senator Chuck Schumer, the head of the Democratic campaign operation in the Senate, was still hedging his bets.

The chances, he said, are "better than they were two weeks ago."

For the Democrats' dream to become a reality, they will need to win nine of 12 Republican-held Senate seats. 

Schumer is focusing on the following: Va., Ore., Minn., N.H., N.C., N.M., Colo., Alaska, Ky. 

Although the latest polls put Democrats within striking distance in all those states, political traders at Intrade aren't yet quite as convinced. Democrats enjoy commanding leads in the markets in seven of those states, but traders believe Coleman and McConnell will hang on and deny Democrats their magic number. Furthermore, while "Democrats to Hold 56-60 seats after the 2008 election" is currently trading at 62.1 (a solid bet by all indications) on Intrade, "Democrats to Hold 61-65 seats" is only trading at 8.

Here's the latest comparison between Real Clear Politics and Intrade:

Virginia:

Poll Average: Warner +28.2

Intrade: Warner +86

Oregon

Poll Average: Merkley +.8

Intrade: Merkley +19.5

Minnesota:

Poll Average: Franken +2.2

Intrade: Coleman +4

New Hampshire:

Poll Average: Shaheen +5.4

Intrade: Shaheen +45.5

North Carolina:

Poll Average: Hagan +2.3

Intrade: Hagan +29

New Mexico:

Poll Average: Udall +17.7

Intrade: Udall +74

Colorado:

Poll Average: Udall +6

Intrade: Udall +57

Alaska

Poll Average: Begich +2.8

Intrade: Begich 24.5

Kentucky:

Poll Average: McConnell +6.5

Intrade: McConnell +54.6