Breaking: Pawlenty Crashes, Romney Rejected, Sarah Palin Surges

In a blog post entitled "Pawlenty Out of the Running for McCain's Vice President," the NY Times' Michael Cooper wrote: "Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said in a radio interview on Friday morning that he planned to be at the Minnesota state fair on Friday, not here in Dayton with Senator John McCain. When he was asked if that means he would not be Mr. McCain’s running mate, Mr. Pawlenty told WCCO radio that 'I think that’s a fair assumption.'’’

So much for this Red State report from last night.

NBC and FOX claim Romney isn’t McCain’s selection, sending his shares spiraling more than 65 points on Intrade in the last hour.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, however, is up more than 45 points this morning in frantic trading. Mark Halperin reports that a a Gulfstream IV arrived in Middletown, Ohio from Anchorage, Alaska Thursday night. Middletown is not far from Dayton, where McCain seems poised to shock the punditocracy with his pick.

Republican VP Market Roundup

With McCain slated to announce his VP choice later today, here's the latest on where the prediction markets stand:

Intrade
Tim Pawlenty - 65%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Joe Lieberman - 5%
Carly Fiorina - 5%

Predictify (242 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 48%
Tim Pawlenty - 24.4%
Other - 13.3%
Mike Huckabee - 5.4%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson - 5%
Joe Lieberman - 4.2%

HubDub (866 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 53%
Other - 39%
Joe Lieberman - 6%

CNN Political Market
Tim Pawlenty - 81.6%
Mitt Romney - 14.3%
Sarah Palin - 1.78%
Joe Lieberman - 1.16%

FTPredict
Tim Pawlenty - 64%
Mitt Romney - 26.9%
Other - 8.1%
Hutchinson - 4.1%

Mitt Might Be It: How Romney Can Make You Rich

McCain may be banking on Romney's business expertise to help his own political fortunes, reports Time's Mark Halperin. Citing two unnamed Republican sources, Halperin writes that the presumptive Republican nominee has settled on the former Mass. Governor as his VP pick.

Whether or not Mitt is it, the former Bain analyst and Republican presidential candidate will do wonders for your political portfolio. The news that McCain had decided on the long-rumored, so-called "safe choice" sent Romney shares soaring this morning in early trading on Intrade.

While Romney's stock is already up nearly 23 points today, there's plenty of up side to investing now. Republican operatives, eager to deflect attention away from Obama's imminent VP announcement and happy to have someone other than Lieberman to discuss, are likely to ride the story all day on cable news.

Bottom Line - On the day after McCain was pounded for forgetting how many mansions he has, pundits will surely debate the wisdom of his decision to go with the richest Republican as his Number Two. Still, there's no debating whether to buy Romney's VP stock right now. Bet the house on it.