Missed Opportunities at Intrade

Politickr, which had been taking a brief break from blogging during the transition, was hoping to spend much of it catching up on political day trading in cabinet posts on Intrade. Unfortunately, the prediction market seems to be taking too much of a breather of its own. 

Just when Intrade should be building on its incredible election momentum and boasting that it predicted the electoral vote exactly right (that lone, pesky Nebraska electoral vote notwithstanding), the site has strangely missed one opportunity after the next to keep politicos hooked.

Sure, there are the requisite contracts about the high-profile cabinet posts. But where is the contract about the next Commerce Secretary? Or Secretary of Health and Human Services? Or Head of the EPA? Why couldn't I invest in Obama's next chief of staff? And why is there a contract on Yahoo's next CEO but not one on who will be America's first CTO? 

When the Democrats met last week behind closed doors to vote on Lieberman's fate, Politickr looked in vain for the Intrade contract on his political future. Where is the contract on who will be named to Obama's Senate seat or Biden's? What about Hillary's replacement if the Secretary of State soap opera plays out the way it's been predicted? The list of potential short-term contracts is endless.

When Tradesports, the sports prediction exchange that was once part of Intrade, closed its doors this week, some nervous traders began to fret that Intrade might be next. But after this banner year for the site, Politickr highly doubted that anything was amiss. Still, the company has done very little to assuage such fears. Instead, by adding a contract about whether Intrade itself will still be in business next year, and removing its big ad for job applicants, a mainstay on the site during election season, the site only seems to be fueling such speculation. Far more disconcerting, however, is the lack of new political contracts on the site at a time when Intrade should be building on its buzz.

    

Politickr's Picks

With only hours to go before most returns come in, Barack Obama isn't the only sure bet.  Here are some other Intrade bargains you shouldn't overlook:

Buy Democrat Mark Begich to win Senate race in Alaska - Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services he received. Not surprisingly, Stevens' stock got slammed, losing roughly 25 points that afternoon. The chance of the convicted senator winning re-election is now nonexistent. If you haven't already, buy lots of his opponent.

Buy Obama to Win Colorado - NBC News moved Colorado into the lean Obama category last week, where the NY Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and several other news organizations have had the state for some time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll in Colorado in more than a month and a half (with the exception of a single Fox News poll in September) and now leads by an average of 6.5%. Obama to win Colorado is currently trading at 84 on Intrade. Don't miss out on the easy money.

Buy Voter Turnout >60% - According to FEC stats, 56.7% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2004 election. The Census Bureau reported that 64% of the voting age population showed up to the polls. Since every indication is that early voting numbers are higher than ever this year (NBC just reported that over 1 million early ballots have already been cast in NC), there is every reason to believe that more than 60% of the voting age population will vote. 

Buy Obama to Win Indiana - The early exit polling out of the state suggests Obama could well be the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (he's doing far better than Kerry even in Republican counties). The polls are tight, but the late trading is trending Democratic. Take a chance on this one.

Buy McCain to Win West Virginia - Most networks have so far refused to call this state, but CBS is projecting McCain will prevail. McCain is currently trading around 90, so there's easy money on the table.

Final Predictions

From Matthew Dowd and George Will to Alex Castellanos and Chris Matthews, the pundits all agree on one thing: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

With only one day left, the Huffington Post lists the unanimous presidential predictions from 24 pundits. While the verdict is unsurpring, the far more interesting nugget is the number of pundits predicting the Democrats will reach the filibuster-proof margin in the Senate: none. 

On The Page, Mark Halperin restates the obvious: "Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House."

Politico features its own Election Prediction Challenge, where strategists and scholars see things exactly the same way.

With Intrade predicting an 89.7% chance of an Obama victory going into the final day of trading (his highest price ever), where else can traders make money tomorrow? Check back later for Politickr's picks.

Predicting Obama's Chief Technology Officer

Intrade hasn't yet released its inevitable slew of contracts on the next president's possible cabinet appointments, but that hasn't stopped BusinessWeek from speculating about the names on Barack Obama's short list for Chief Technology Officer.

Obama, who pledged early on in his campaign to create the first cabinet-level position of Chief Technology Officer for the United States to expand broadband access and oversee a $50 billion venture fund for green technology, hasn't floated any names. BusinessWeek, however, citing Washington insiders, offered a few possibilities: 

• Vint Cerf, Google's chief internet evangelist
• Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft
  
• Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon
• Ed Felten, computer science professor at Princeton

A quick check of Hubdub and Predictify revealed no current contracts about the US's first CTO, so let us know what you think in the comments.

Recreational traders can chime in on Hubdub about how many Republicans will be in Obama's cabinet, whether Gore will serve in the administration, and whether Warren Buffett will be appointed Treasury Secretary. At Predictify, the focus is on how many women will be in Obama's cabinet and whether Colin Powell will get a nod.

Morning Prediction Roundup

Hillary Clinton heightens expectations: Asked whether Democrats will win in a landslide, she tells Good Morning America's Kate Snow "I think we're headed for a very big win." 

Joe Biden: We'll Win in West Virginia. "We're going to win in West Virginia," he said at an Ohio rally. "We're going to shock the living devil out of y'all." 

It may seem like pure bluster from Biden, but last week's ARG poll numbers suggest there could be something to his prediction. If you're convinced, this could be a buying opportunity: McCain currently leads on Intrade 60-36.

7-Eleven Predicts Huge Obama Win: Obama currently leads McCain 59-41 at the chain's stores, where those who support Obama can choose his blue coffee cup over McCain's red one. It's not exactly Intrade, but the 7-Eleven market has been surprisingly accurate over the last two presidential election cycles. In 2004, cup sales put Bush over Kerry by 2 points. In 2000, Bush led by a single percentage point. As for the bean race in the battleground states, Obama leads 61-39 in Virginia, but McCain is up 51-49 in N.C. and 53-47 in New Hampshire.

Scholastic News: McCain Should Worry. In a large poll conducted by Scholastic News of kids between pre-K and 12th grade, Obama won 57-39. Sure, that's Obama's vocal base. But USA Today puts the poll in context: student voters have been right 15 of the last 17 times. "The student voters - about 250,000 this year - have an 88% prediction rate. Only twice since 1940 have their results been at odds with the nation's: in 1948, when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, and in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon."

Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews Run for Senate in 2010? Politico keeps up the speculation.

At the open: Obama - 80; McCain - 20

Bill Clinton: Bet on Barack

Bill Clinton, who not long ago famously criticized Barack Obama's stance on Iraq as "the biggest fairy tale I've ever seen," is now foreshadowing a fairy tale ending on Election Day. With his party on the mend and his own political stock finally showing some strength, the former president-turned pundit-in-chief is doubling down on a new prediction: Barack Obama is going to win big!

"I predict that Senator Obama will win and win pretty handily," said Clinton, who met Barack Obama for lunch at the former president's Harlem office.

For his own part, the Democratic nominee seemed convinced. "He knows a little something about politics," said Obama.

Bottom Line - If you buy the fact that Bill Clinton has regained his magical political touch, it's time to buy Obama on Intrade.

Bet Big on Biden

Howard Fineman is convinced, and it's time to take action. In an analysis on MSNBC's website, he said: "Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee."

Chuck Todd, appearing on Countdown with Keith Olbermann tonight, pointed out the grin on Biden's face during his non-denial denial and noted the top VP contender's decision to go golfing instead of sitting home and sulking today was telling.

Bottom Line - While it would have been better to have gotten on board the Biden bandwagon last week, when he was still selling for $1/share, it's not too late. The Biden stock is still a steal at its current $3/share, and is likely to spike, at least in the short term, while the Biden speculation builds. Buy as much as you can, and, just to be on the safe side, short Clinton, Clark, and Sebelius.

Edwards' Stock Tanks After Obama Endorsement

John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama in Michigan yesterday may have buoyed his own political future, but it did nothing to help the political futures of traders banking on the former NC senator's place on the 2008 ticket. By quickly slamming the door on a VP run in the full court press that followed his endorsement, Edwards sent shares of his VP stock on Intrade plummeting 7.5 cents on the day.

Asked by Matt Lauer on the Today Show this morning whether he'd be Barack Obama's vice presidential pick, Edwards dismissed the possibility. "No, won't happen," he said. Pressed by Lauer to categorically deny any chance of a 2004 replay, Edwards was happy to oblige. "It's just not something I'm interested in," he said. See the full clip below.



Bottom Line: Holding Edwards stock at this stage is even more futile than hoarding Hillary's. Put your money on Clinton for VP a(t least in the short run, until the press coverage reaches a crescendo), or take a look at The National Journal's speculation and pick a favorite.

Gingrich: Obama Will Win in Iowa

Newt Gingrich, polarizing politician-turned prolific predictor, is at it again. In an interview with Diane Sawyer on Good Morning America, the former Speaker of the House said the smart money is now on Obama in Iowa. "My guess is Senator Obama's going to win Iowa and that he's going to win it by a surprising margin," he said.

Just two months ago, however, Gingrich seemed convinced that Clinton was unstoppable. "I think the odds are 80 per cent that Sen. Clinton is the next president," he said after announcing that he didn't intend to compete for the Republican nomination in 2008. "I think she is almost certainly going to win the Democratic nomination."

So why is Newt suddenly hedging on Hillary? He says it's a hunch. "The emotional energy that Senator Obama's building is more powerful than the emotional energy Senator Clinton's building," he told Sawyer.

Slightly more scientific support for such speculation can be found in this week's latest ABC/Washington Post. Senator Obama has opened a slight, albeit still statistically insignificant, lead over Clinton and Edwards (30%-26%-22% respectively). On Intrade, the two top contenders are trading in a tie for the lead in Iowa at 45.

The Bottom Line: If you trust the former Speaker of the House with your money, invest in Obama to win in Iowa.

Daily Prediction: Simon Says Obama Won't Be VP

Roger Simon, chief political columnist at The Politico, is convinced that it's the presidential nomination or bust for Barack Obama.

Already weighing Hillary's Clinton's VP possibilities, he notes: "There would be enormous pressure within the party for her to select Barack Obama. It would be a unifying choice, an historic choice and she wouldn’t do it in a million years."

Intraders, however, aren't nearly as convinced. Obama, who is trading at 19 for the Democratic VP nomination, is currently holding in second place on the site behind New Mexico Governor and fellow Democratic candidate Bill Richardson.

But Simon, who thinks Richardson comes with far too much baggage from the last Clinton administration, thinks Bill Clinton's former Energy Secretary is also an unlikely choice (Anyone who saw his pathetic performance on Meet The Press on May 27 would be inclined to agree.).

"Though Richardson would be pleased as punch to get the bid, though he would add geographic balance to the ticket and though he is a governor, which voters tend to like, somehow I don’t think it is in the cards," he said.

Bottom Line: Short both Obama and Richardson for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination and buy Evan Bayh and Mark Warner.