McCain's Harriet Miers?

Political traders at Intrade are now betting on the likelihood that Sarah Palin, McCain's VP pick, will be withdrawn. The new prediction market contract, which was unveiled this morning and is currently trading at 13, comes on the heels of Palin's acknowledgement this weekend that her unmarried 17-year-old daughter is pregnant.

With the McCain campaign still too reticent regarding the rigor of its vetting process for some party loyalists, a handful of conservative bloggers are already expressing (pregnant) pause at their candidate's choice.

Still, Politickr is convinced that John Edwards would sooner claim responsibility for this pregnancy than John McCain would throw Palin under the bus for her straight talk. Any such acknowledgement that his first major presidential decision was so badly mismanaged would surely doom his candidacy. As a result, the new contract is a screaming short.

Other than the tabloids, the biggest winner here appears to be Intrade itself. The new contract has provided major news outlets, like Reuters, The Washington Post, and Huffington Post, with the news peg they need to write about a topic that has so far only generated off-the-record whispers.

Breaking: Pawlenty Crashes, Romney Rejected, Sarah Palin Surges

In a blog post entitled "Pawlenty Out of the Running for McCain's Vice President," the NY Times' Michael Cooper wrote: "Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said in a radio interview on Friday morning that he planned to be at the Minnesota state fair on Friday, not here in Dayton with Senator John McCain. When he was asked if that means he would not be Mr. McCain’s running mate, Mr. Pawlenty told WCCO radio that 'I think that’s a fair assumption.'’’

So much for this Red State report from last night.

NBC and FOX claim Romney isn’t McCain’s selection, sending his shares spiraling more than 65 points on Intrade in the last hour.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, however, is up more than 45 points this morning in frantic trading. Mark Halperin reports that a a Gulfstream IV arrived in Middletown, Ohio from Anchorage, Alaska Thursday night. Middletown is not far from Dayton, where McCain seems poised to shock the punditocracy with his pick.

Republican VP Market Roundup

With McCain slated to announce his VP choice later today, here's the latest on where the prediction markets stand:

Intrade
Tim Pawlenty - 65%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Joe Lieberman - 5%
Carly Fiorina - 5%

Predictify (242 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 48%
Tim Pawlenty - 24.4%
Other - 13.3%
Mike Huckabee - 5.4%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson - 5%
Joe Lieberman - 4.2%

HubDub (866 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 53%
Other - 39%
Joe Lieberman - 6%

CNN Political Market
Tim Pawlenty - 81.6%
Mitt Romney - 14.3%
Sarah Palin - 1.78%
Joe Lieberman - 1.16%

FTPredict
Tim Pawlenty - 64%
Mitt Romney - 26.9%
Other - 8.1%
Hutchinson - 4.1%

Pawlenty Peaks

CNN's Wolf Blitzer just announced that Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor on McCain's ever-shrinking VP short list, abruptly cancelled his appearance this afternoon on The Situation Room. As the speculation reaches a fevered pitch with word that McCain has made his choice, The Atlantic is also reporting that Pawlenty cleared his schedule for today and tomorrow.

News that Pawlenty might be McCain's pick appears to be moving political prediction markets. On Intrade, the Minnesota governor peaked today at 50, up more than 25 points since yesterday's close. Although Mitt Romney still leads the pack of would-be VPs at 50, he's down nearly 25 points in recent trading, and is now only 10 points ahead of Pawlenty.

The Bottom Line - If you haven't purchased any Pawlenty yet, don't miss your chance. While most pundits are still predicting Romney, Politickr thinks this news means it's time to diversify.

Mitt Might Be It: How Romney Can Make You Rich

McCain may be banking on Romney's business expertise to help his own political fortunes, reports Time's Mark Halperin. Citing two unnamed Republican sources, Halperin writes that the presumptive Republican nominee has settled on the former Mass. Governor as his VP pick.

Whether or not Mitt is it, the former Bain analyst and Republican presidential candidate will do wonders for your political portfolio. The news that McCain had decided on the long-rumored, so-called "safe choice" sent Romney shares soaring this morning in early trading on Intrade.

While Romney's stock is already up nearly 23 points today, there's plenty of up side to investing now. Republican operatives, eager to deflect attention away from Obama's imminent VP announcement and happy to have someone other than Lieberman to discuss, are likely to ride the story all day on cable news.

Bottom Line - On the day after McCain was pounded for forgetting how many mansions he has, pundits will surely debate the wisdom of his decision to go with the richest Republican as his Number Two. Still, there's no debating whether to buy Romney's VP stock right now. Bet the house on it.

Bet Big on Biden

Howard Fineman is convinced, and it's time to take action. In an analysis on MSNBC's website, he said: "Barring a big surprise or last-minute change of heart, the choice is likely to be Sen. Joe Biden of Delaware, chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee."

Chuck Todd, appearing on Countdown with Keith Olbermann tonight, pointed out the grin on Biden's face during his non-denial denial and noted the top VP contender's decision to go golfing instead of sitting home and sulking today was telling.

Bottom Line - While it would have been better to have gotten on board the Biden bandwagon last week, when he was still selling for $1/share, it's not too late. The Biden stock is still a steal at its current $3/share, and is likely to spike, at least in the short term, while the Biden speculation builds. Buy as much as you can, and, just to be on the safe side, short Clinton, Clark, and Sebelius.

March Madness for Politics

If you, like us, had an even harder time with your NCAA basketball bracket this year than you did with your Palm Beach Butterfly Ballot, MSNBC is offering a way to redeem yourself: A new interactive feature on their website allows you to play pundit and predict John McCain's running mate from a field of 32 contenders.

Even more enticing than the Republican Veepstakes itself is the scintillating, Sports Center-esque commentary from political reporter David Gregory and political director Chuck Todd that accompanies the contest. Here are some highlights on how they're handicapping the first round:

Sarah Palin v. Rob Portman:
David Gregory - "I'm going to go for Portman here - a former leader in the House, southern Ohio, strong conservative, young, dynamic, future of the party. I think he's a very attractive candidate to be a number two."

Chuck Todd - "I tell you Sarah Palin - she's a mother, five children, just gave birth, sitting governor of Alaska. Conservatives love her. Don't be surprised if she's got some grassroots movement."
Meg Whitman v. Kay Bailey Hutchison
David Gregory - "Kay Bailey Hutchison has been around a long time. Too establishment I think. Meg Whitman, on the new economy, could sure up a real potential weakness for McCain in a year when this could be issue #1 that people vote on."

Lindsey Graham v. Bobby Jindal
Chuck Todd - "Bobby Jindal - When you can biologically be McCain's grandson, it might not be the right pick."

Mike Huckabee v. J.C. Watts Chuck Todd - "Mike Huckabee could do well in something like this. His voters still seem to be fairly energized about him."

David Gregory - "J.C. Watts - Does he pick an African American to try to balance out Obama? It's a little cynical to reach for someone who doesn't necessarily have the national following just because he's black."

While many of the pairings are thought-provoking, several of the seedings seem strange. How Jeb Bush secured a #2 seed in a year when the Bush name is poisonous in politics defies reason. Condoleeza Rice, who has repeatedly denied any interest in the number 2 slot, also somehow wound up with a #2 seed. Clearly the bracketologists behind the Republican Veepstakes weren't looking at Intrade, where Condi has been trading at around 4.5 for the Republican VP nomination.

Take a look at the screen shot of our picks and chime in with your own in the comments.

Edwards' Stock Tanks After Obama Endorsement

John Edwards' endorsement of Barack Obama in Michigan yesterday may have buoyed his own political future, but it did nothing to help the political futures of traders banking on the former NC senator's place on the 2008 ticket. By quickly slamming the door on a VP run in the full court press that followed his endorsement, Edwards sent shares of his VP stock on Intrade plummeting 7.5 cents on the day.

Asked by Matt Lauer on the Today Show this morning whether he'd be Barack Obama's vice presidential pick, Edwards dismissed the possibility. "No, won't happen," he said. Pressed by Lauer to categorically deny any chance of a 2004 replay, Edwards was happy to oblige. "It's just not something I'm interested in," he said. See the full clip below.



Bottom Line: Holding Edwards stock at this stage is even more futile than hoarding Hillary's. Put your money on Clinton for VP a(t least in the short run, until the press coverage reaches a crescendo), or take a look at The National Journal's speculation and pick a favorite.

The Short List

ABC News is reporting that Mark Warner is leaning toward a run for the VA Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator John Warner.

The Bottom Line: Since Mark Warner's Senate bid may take him off the VP short list in 2008, it's time to add him to your short list on Intrade. As of this afternoon, the Mark Warner VP contract was trading at 14.8.

Daily Prediction: Simon Says Obama Won't Be VP

Roger Simon, chief political columnist at The Politico, is convinced that it's the presidential nomination or bust for Barack Obama.

Already weighing Hillary's Clinton's VP possibilities, he notes: "There would be enormous pressure within the party for her to select Barack Obama. It would be a unifying choice, an historic choice and she wouldn’t do it in a million years."

Intraders, however, aren't nearly as convinced. Obama, who is trading at 19 for the Democratic VP nomination, is currently holding in second place on the site behind New Mexico Governor and fellow Democratic candidate Bill Richardson.

But Simon, who thinks Richardson comes with far too much baggage from the last Clinton administration, thinks Bill Clinton's former Energy Secretary is also an unlikely choice (Anyone who saw his pathetic performance on Meet The Press on May 27 would be inclined to agree.).

"Though Richardson would be pleased as punch to get the bid, though he would add geographic balance to the ticket and though he is a governor, which voters tend to like, somehow I don’t think it is in the cards," he said.

Bottom Line: Short both Obama and Richardson for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination and buy Evan Bayh and Mark Warner.