Breaking: Pawlenty Crashes, Romney Rejected, Sarah Palin Surges

In a blog post entitled "Pawlenty Out of the Running for McCain's Vice President," the NY Times' Michael Cooper wrote: "Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said in a radio interview on Friday morning that he planned to be at the Minnesota state fair on Friday, not here in Dayton with Senator John McCain. When he was asked if that means he would not be Mr. McCain’s running mate, Mr. Pawlenty told WCCO radio that 'I think that’s a fair assumption.'’’

So much for this Red State report from last night.

NBC and FOX claim Romney isn’t McCain’s selection, sending his shares spiraling more than 65 points on Intrade in the last hour.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, however, is up more than 45 points this morning in frantic trading. Mark Halperin reports that a a Gulfstream IV arrived in Middletown, Ohio from Anchorage, Alaska Thursday night. Middletown is not far from Dayton, where McCain seems poised to shock the punditocracy with his pick.

Republican VP Market Roundup

With McCain slated to announce his VP choice later today, here's the latest on where the prediction markets stand:

Intrade
Tim Pawlenty - 65%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Joe Lieberman - 5%
Carly Fiorina - 5%

Predictify (242 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 48%
Tim Pawlenty - 24.4%
Other - 13.3%
Mike Huckabee - 5.4%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson - 5%
Joe Lieberman - 4.2%

HubDub (866 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 53%
Other - 39%
Joe Lieberman - 6%

CNN Political Market
Tim Pawlenty - 81.6%
Mitt Romney - 14.3%
Sarah Palin - 1.78%
Joe Lieberman - 1.16%

FTPredict
Tim Pawlenty - 64%
Mitt Romney - 26.9%
Other - 8.1%
Hutchinson - 4.1%

Pawlenty Peaks

CNN's Wolf Blitzer just announced that Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor on McCain's ever-shrinking VP short list, abruptly cancelled his appearance this afternoon on The Situation Room. As the speculation reaches a fevered pitch with word that McCain has made his choice, The Atlantic is also reporting that Pawlenty cleared his schedule for today and tomorrow.

News that Pawlenty might be McCain's pick appears to be moving political prediction markets. On Intrade, the Minnesota governor peaked today at 50, up more than 25 points since yesterday's close. Although Mitt Romney still leads the pack of would-be VPs at 50, he's down nearly 25 points in recent trading, and is now only 10 points ahead of Pawlenty.

The Bottom Line - If you haven't purchased any Pawlenty yet, don't miss your chance. While most pundits are still predicting Romney, Politickr thinks this news means it's time to diversify.