Politickr's Picks

With only hours to go before most returns come in, Barack Obama isn't the only sure bet.  Here are some other Intrade bargains you shouldn't overlook:

Buy Democrat Mark Begich to win Senate race in Alaska - Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services he received. Not surprisingly, Stevens' stock got slammed, losing roughly 25 points that afternoon. The chance of the convicted senator winning re-election is now nonexistent. If you haven't already, buy lots of his opponent.

Buy Obama to Win Colorado - NBC News moved Colorado into the lean Obama category last week, where the NY Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and several other news organizations have had the state for some time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll in Colorado in more than a month and a half (with the exception of a single Fox News poll in September) and now leads by an average of 6.5%. Obama to win Colorado is currently trading at 84 on Intrade. Don't miss out on the easy money.

Buy Voter Turnout >60% - According to FEC stats, 56.7% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2004 election. The Census Bureau reported that 64% of the voting age population showed up to the polls. Since every indication is that early voting numbers are higher than ever this year (NBC just reported that over 1 million early ballots have already been cast in NC), there is every reason to believe that more than 60% of the voting age population will vote. 

Buy Obama to Win Indiana - The early exit polling out of the state suggests Obama could well be the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (he's doing far better than Kerry even in Republican counties). The polls are tight, but the late trading is trending Democratic. Take a chance on this one.

Buy McCain to Win West Virginia - Most networks have so far refused to call this state, but CBS is projecting McCain will prevail. McCain is currently trading around 90, so there's easy money on the table.

Who's Behind Intrade Price Manipulation?

Someone has been keeping John McCain's stock, which had been plunging along with the Dow long before he ever invoked Joe the Plumber at the final debate, from sinking all the way down the drain. Intrade, which just revealed the results of its own internal investigation into the suspicious trading, fingered a single, rogue "institutional" trader for artificially inflating McCain's stock price and causing the mess. 

But even with a slew of major political news outlets now following the story, from CQ to Politico, there still seem to be more questions than answers. Why would a trader flush with funds sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into what surely looks to be a losing bet? Who could be behind the price manipulation?

A couple of theories seem to be emerging:

• In a post on Midas Oracle, one commentator suggested the culprit could be Centrist Messenger, the campaign advertising company that guarantees your money back if you bought an ad for the losing candidate. While it's apparent that the company has been hedging on Intrade, is it really possible that it's been spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on McCain just in case he pulls out a November surprise and it's forced to pay back devastated Obama supporters? 
• Clusterstock suggests that it could simply be a bullish McCain trader skeptical about the polls. While this may seem implausible on its face, it's important to remember the most dramatic Intrade success story reported in the media so far this year:

Just a couple of weeks ago, The Washington Post retold the story of Bethan Brome Lilija, a trader who risked $75,000 on McCain back when the Arizona Senator was low on money and had been left for dead by the pundits. On Intrade, his shares were down to around 5. 

John Stossel told the same story in his May 2008 report on 20/20.

Given Intrade CEO John Delaney's account of an "institutional" investor, the first scenario seems more likely. But at a time when the economy seems even gloomier than McCain's prospects, some traders are surely once again buying McCain for a buck and hoping to win the lottery.

 

Morning Prediction Roundup

Hillary Clinton heightens expectations: Asked whether Democrats will win in a landslide, she tells Good Morning America's Kate Snow "I think we're headed for a very big win." 

Joe Biden: We'll Win in West Virginia. "We're going to win in West Virginia," he said at an Ohio rally. "We're going to shock the living devil out of y'all." 

It may seem like pure bluster from Biden, but last week's ARG poll numbers suggest there could be something to his prediction. If you're convinced, this could be a buying opportunity: McCain currently leads on Intrade 60-36.

7-Eleven Predicts Huge Obama Win: Obama currently leads McCain 59-41 at the chain's stores, where those who support Obama can choose his blue coffee cup over McCain's red one. It's not exactly Intrade, but the 7-Eleven market has been surprisingly accurate over the last two presidential election cycles. In 2004, cup sales put Bush over Kerry by 2 points. In 2000, Bush led by a single percentage point. As for the bean race in the battleground states, Obama leads 61-39 in Virginia, but McCain is up 51-49 in N.C. and 53-47 in New Hampshire.

Scholastic News: McCain Should Worry. In a large poll conducted by Scholastic News of kids between pre-K and 12th grade, Obama won 57-39. Sure, that's Obama's vocal base. But USA Today puts the poll in context: student voters have been right 15 of the last 17 times. "The student voters - about 250,000 this year - have an 88% prediction rate. Only twice since 1940 have their results been at odds with the nation's: in 1948, when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, and in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon."

Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews Run for Senate in 2010? Politico keeps up the speculation.

At the open: Obama - 80; McCain - 20

How Low Can He Go? McCain Hits New Bottom

John McCain, whose stock has been tumbling along with the DOW, reached a new low on Intrade this morning when he briefly dipped below 30 for the first time since July. While he bounced back this afternoon to 30.5 in pre-debate trading, McCain's stock is now down close to 25 points from its early September high and at the lowest point since the financial crisis exploded three weeks ago.

In the last week alone, Clusterstock, which has been keeping one eye on the bloodbath on Wall St. and the other trained on the Republican candidate's collapse in the futures market, has featured the following headlines: "McCain Plummets with Stocks," "McCain Stock Collapse Resumes," "McCain's Stock Collapses," and "McCain Hits New Low."

With the latest Gallup tracking poll showing Obama up by 9 points, matching his highest lead to date in the campaign, and with the Real Clear Politics average putting him a healthy 5.5 points ahead, McCain needs nothing short of a complete Obama collapse in tonight's debate to recover on Intrade.

Nigel Eccles, the founder of Hubdub, pointed out in a web post that McCain's election prospects may be even worse than Intrade purports.

"Intrade is the only market maker showing McCain at above 30%," he said. "Betfair, ourselves (Hubdub) and UK bookmakers are showing him at around 23% and falling fast."

In a recent lengthy article in The New York Times on John McCain's ties to gambling, Jo Becker and Don Van Natta Jr. described the Republican nominee as an old hand at the craps table.

"For much of his adult life, Mr McCain has gambled as often as once a month, friends and associates said, traveling to Las Vegas for weekend betting marathons," they said. 

One has to wonder, however, if even gambler McCain would bet on his own stock in the current climate.

McCain's Harriet Miers?

Political traders at Intrade are now betting on the likelihood that Sarah Palin, McCain's VP pick, will be withdrawn. The new prediction market contract, which was unveiled this morning and is currently trading at 13, comes on the heels of Palin's acknowledgement this weekend that her unmarried 17-year-old daughter is pregnant.

With the McCain campaign still too reticent regarding the rigor of its vetting process for some party loyalists, a handful of conservative bloggers are already expressing (pregnant) pause at their candidate's choice.

Still, Politickr is convinced that John Edwards would sooner claim responsibility for this pregnancy than John McCain would throw Palin under the bus for her straight talk. Any such acknowledgement that his first major presidential decision was so badly mismanaged would surely doom his candidacy. As a result, the new contract is a screaming short.

Other than the tabloids, the biggest winner here appears to be Intrade itself. The new contract has provided major news outlets, like Reuters, The Washington Post, and Huffington Post, with the news peg they need to write about a topic that has so far only generated off-the-record whispers.

Breaking: Pawlenty Crashes, Romney Rejected, Sarah Palin Surges

In a blog post entitled "Pawlenty Out of the Running for McCain's Vice President," the NY Times' Michael Cooper wrote: "Gov. Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said in a radio interview on Friday morning that he planned to be at the Minnesota state fair on Friday, not here in Dayton with Senator John McCain. When he was asked if that means he would not be Mr. McCain’s running mate, Mr. Pawlenty told WCCO radio that 'I think that’s a fair assumption.'’’

So much for this Red State report from last night.

NBC and FOX claim Romney isn’t McCain’s selection, sending his shares spiraling more than 65 points on Intrade in the last hour.

Alaska Governor Sarah Palin, however, is up more than 45 points this morning in frantic trading. Mark Halperin reports that a a Gulfstream IV arrived in Middletown, Ohio from Anchorage, Alaska Thursday night. Middletown is not far from Dayton, where McCain seems poised to shock the punditocracy with his pick.

Republican VP Market Roundup

With McCain slated to announce his VP choice later today, here's the latest on where the prediction markets stand:

Intrade
Tim Pawlenty - 65%
Mitt Romney - 22%
Joe Lieberman - 5%
Carly Fiorina - 5%

Predictify (242 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 48%
Tim Pawlenty - 24.4%
Other - 13.3%
Mike Huckabee - 5.4%
Kay Bailey Hutchinson - 5%
Joe Lieberman - 4.2%

HubDub (866 predictions)
Mitt Romney - 53%
Other - 39%
Joe Lieberman - 6%

CNN Political Market
Tim Pawlenty - 81.6%
Mitt Romney - 14.3%
Sarah Palin - 1.78%
Joe Lieberman - 1.16%

FTPredict
Tim Pawlenty - 64%
Mitt Romney - 26.9%
Other - 8.1%
Hutchinson - 4.1%

Pawlenty Peaks

CNN's Wolf Blitzer just announced that Tim Pawlenty, the Minnesota governor on McCain's ever-shrinking VP short list, abruptly cancelled his appearance this afternoon on The Situation Room. As the speculation reaches a fevered pitch with word that McCain has made his choice, The Atlantic is also reporting that Pawlenty cleared his schedule for today and tomorrow.

News that Pawlenty might be McCain's pick appears to be moving political prediction markets. On Intrade, the Minnesota governor peaked today at 50, up more than 25 points since yesterday's close. Although Mitt Romney still leads the pack of would-be VPs at 50, he's down nearly 25 points in recent trading, and is now only 10 points ahead of Pawlenty.

The Bottom Line - If you haven't purchased any Pawlenty yet, don't miss your chance. While most pundits are still predicting Romney, Politickr thinks this news means it's time to diversify.

Mitt Might Be It: How Romney Can Make You Rich

McCain may be banking on Romney's business expertise to help his own political fortunes, reports Time's Mark Halperin. Citing two unnamed Republican sources, Halperin writes that the presumptive Republican nominee has settled on the former Mass. Governor as his VP pick.

Whether or not Mitt is it, the former Bain analyst and Republican presidential candidate will do wonders for your political portfolio. The news that McCain had decided on the long-rumored, so-called "safe choice" sent Romney shares soaring this morning in early trading on Intrade.

While Romney's stock is already up nearly 23 points today, there's plenty of up side to investing now. Republican operatives, eager to deflect attention away from Obama's imminent VP announcement and happy to have someone other than Lieberman to discuss, are likely to ride the story all day on cable news.

Bottom Line - On the day after McCain was pounded for forgetting how many mansions he has, pundits will surely debate the wisdom of his decision to go with the richest Republican as his Number Two. Still, there's no debating whether to buy Romney's VP stock right now. Bet the house on it.

March Madness for Politics

If you, like us, had an even harder time with your NCAA basketball bracket this year than you did with your Palm Beach Butterfly Ballot, MSNBC is offering a way to redeem yourself: A new interactive feature on their website allows you to play pundit and predict John McCain's running mate from a field of 32 contenders.

Even more enticing than the Republican Veepstakes itself is the scintillating, Sports Center-esque commentary from political reporter David Gregory and political director Chuck Todd that accompanies the contest. Here are some highlights on how they're handicapping the first round:

Sarah Palin v. Rob Portman:
David Gregory - "I'm going to go for Portman here - a former leader in the House, southern Ohio, strong conservative, young, dynamic, future of the party. I think he's a very attractive candidate to be a number two."

Chuck Todd - "I tell you Sarah Palin - she's a mother, five children, just gave birth, sitting governor of Alaska. Conservatives love her. Don't be surprised if she's got some grassroots movement."
Meg Whitman v. Kay Bailey Hutchison
David Gregory - "Kay Bailey Hutchison has been around a long time. Too establishment I think. Meg Whitman, on the new economy, could sure up a real potential weakness for McCain in a year when this could be issue #1 that people vote on."

Lindsey Graham v. Bobby Jindal
Chuck Todd - "Bobby Jindal - When you can biologically be McCain's grandson, it might not be the right pick."

Mike Huckabee v. J.C. Watts Chuck Todd - "Mike Huckabee could do well in something like this. His voters still seem to be fairly energized about him."

David Gregory - "J.C. Watts - Does he pick an African American to try to balance out Obama? It's a little cynical to reach for someone who doesn't necessarily have the national following just because he's black."

While many of the pairings are thought-provoking, several of the seedings seem strange. How Jeb Bush secured a #2 seed in a year when the Bush name is poisonous in politics defies reason. Condoleeza Rice, who has repeatedly denied any interest in the number 2 slot, also somehow wound up with a #2 seed. Clearly the bracketologists behind the Republican Veepstakes weren't looking at Intrade, where Condi has been trading at around 4.5 for the Republican VP nomination.

Take a look at the screen shot of our picks and chime in with your own in the comments.