Fading Freddy Flops and Fizzles

Once billed as his party's panacea, Fred Thompson is quickly becoming known for his soporific style on the stump. Adam Nagourney, who's been shadowing the subdued former senator at campaign stops across Iowa, makes him sound like Willy Loman with a tired campaign slogan. He reports that the Law & Order star seems uncomfortable in the spotlight, exhausted and tense from tedious campaign events, and all but desperate for applause.

Even if the reality isn't half as bad as Nagourney purports, it's clear that Fred Thompson peaked long before most people even took a peek at his platform. Thus, it's time to short Thompson for the Republican nomination. With a mere 9 million bucks in the bank at the end of the third quarter, Thompson's campaign coffers are far from stuffed. In fact, according to the politically astute Gail Collins, the only thing that looks stuffed is the candidate himself. "He appears to have been stuffed by a taxidermist," she said.

The Short List

ABC News is reporting that Mark Warner is leaning toward a run for the VA Senate seat being vacated by Republican Senator John Warner.

The Bottom Line: Since Mark Warner's Senate bid may take him off the VP short list in 2008, it's time to add him to your short list on Intrade. As of this afternoon, the Mark Warner VP contract was trading at 14.8.

National Journal Adopts Prediction Markets

Intrade announced today that it is partnering with the National Journal to bring online political prediction markets inside the Beltway. The new site, which should be available soon on the Journal's homepage, is bound to be a hit with politicos.

While Chris Masse of Midasoracle panned the partnership in a post today, we're decidedly more optimistic. This is exactly the kind of deal that lends credence to the industry and, better yet, encourages political junkies to battle it out with professional pundits.

Daily Prediction: Simon Says Obama Won't Be VP

Roger Simon, chief political columnist at The Politico, is convinced that it's the presidential nomination or bust for Barack Obama.

Already weighing Hillary's Clinton's VP possibilities, he notes: "There would be enormous pressure within the party for her to select Barack Obama. It would be a unifying choice, an historic choice and she wouldn’t do it in a million years."

Intraders, however, aren't nearly as convinced. Obama, who is trading at 19 for the Democratic VP nomination, is currently holding in second place on the site behind New Mexico Governor and fellow Democratic candidate Bill Richardson.

But Simon, who thinks Richardson comes with far too much baggage from the last Clinton administration, thinks Bill Clinton's former Energy Secretary is also an unlikely choice (Anyone who saw his pathetic performance on Meet The Press on May 27 would be inclined to agree.).

"Though Richardson would be pleased as punch to get the bid, though he would add geographic balance to the ticket and though he is a governor, which voters tend to like, somehow I don’t think it is in the cards," he said.

Bottom Line: Short both Obama and Richardson for the Democratic Vice Presidential nomination and buy Evan Bayh and Mark Warner.

iPredict...The Start Of A Trend

MSNBC recently launched its own online political prediction market at MSNBC.com Even after commuting Scooter Libby's sentence yesterday, participants still think President Bush will soon let Scooter skate scott free. Still, even if Bush pushes a full pardon, he is much less likely to fill another Supreme Court vacancy, at least according to the wisdom of the MSNBC crowd.

The cable network isn't the first news organization to announce its foray into political futures. Earlier this year, The Financial Times partnered with Intrade.com to create a fake-money trading game called FTPredict,where users compete for prizes by predicting the 2008 presidential nominees. The Chicago Sun-Times and ABC-KGO San Francisco have both launched prediction markets to track a variety of current events and, as noted here previously, Slate is pooling political prediction market results in the run-up to the 2008 election.

Which media organization will be next? Let the predictions begin!

Are Political Futures Legit?

According to a Slate Explainer, the prediction market on whether political futures markets are legal appears to be trading in mixed volume.

But at least one Democratic congressman doesn't think there's any doubt in the matter. Rep. Barney Frank (D-Mass.), chairman of the Financial Services Committee, held a press conference yesterday to introduce legislation to repeal the ban on online gambling passed by Congress last year.

"This is about freedom," Frank said. "I'm not just concerned with poker. What's next? Mahjong?"

A Bettor Way To Track Political Futures: Slate Launches Hourly Intrade and IEM Updates

"If a single prediction market is wiser than the pundits and the polls, imagine how wise all the prediction markets are together. That's the idea behind Slate's "Political Futures," which offers a comprehensive guide to all the big political prediction markets.

From now until Election Day 2008, Slate plans to publish hourly updates of the key data from Iowa Electronic Markets, Intrade.com, and Casualobserver.net. (Casualobserver has not yet launched its 2008 political prediction market) Initially, Slate will be tracking four markets: 1) Democratic nominee for president, 2) Republican nominee for president, 3) presidential victor, and 4) party control of the presidency. It will add Senate and House races as they heat up next year.