Politickr's Picks

With only hours to go before most returns come in, Barack Obama isn't the only sure bet.  Here are some other Intrade bargains you shouldn't overlook:

Buy Democrat Mark Begich to win Senate race in Alaska - Ted Stevens, the longest-serving Republican in the Senate, was convicted of violating ethics laws for failing to report gifts and services he received. Not surprisingly, Stevens' stock got slammed, losing roughly 25 points that afternoon. The chance of the convicted senator winning re-election is now nonexistent. If you haven't already, buy lots of his opponent.

Buy Obama to Win Colorado - NBC News moved Colorado into the lean Obama category last week, where the NY Times, The Washington Post, Politico, and several other news organizations have had the state for some time. In fact, according to Real Clear Politics, Obama hasn't trailed in a single poll in Colorado in more than a month and a half (with the exception of a single Fox News poll in September) and now leads by an average of 6.5%. Obama to win Colorado is currently trading at 84 on Intrade. Don't miss out on the easy money.

Buy Voter Turnout >60% - According to FEC stats, 56.7% of eligible voters cast ballots in the 2004 election. The Census Bureau reported that 64% of the voting age population showed up to the polls. Since every indication is that early voting numbers are higher than ever this year (NBC just reported that over 1 million early ballots have already been cast in NC), there is every reason to believe that more than 60% of the voting age population will vote. 

Buy Obama to Win Indiana - The early exit polling out of the state suggests Obama could well be the first Democrat to carry the state since Lyndon Johnson in 1964 (he's doing far better than Kerry even in Republican counties). The polls are tight, but the late trading is trending Democratic. Take a chance on this one.

Buy McCain to Win West Virginia - Most networks have so far refused to call this state, but CBS is projecting McCain will prevail. McCain is currently trading around 90, so there's easy money on the table.

Final Predictions

From Matthew Dowd and George Will to Alex Castellanos and Chris Matthews, the pundits all agree on one thing: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.

With only one day left, the Huffington Post lists the unanimous presidential predictions from 24 pundits. While the verdict is unsurpring, the far more interesting nugget is the number of pundits predicting the Democrats will reach the filibuster-proof margin in the Senate: none. 

On The Page, Mark Halperin restates the obvious: "Barring an extraordinary shock, Barack Obama will win more than 270 electoral votes on Tuesday, giving him the White House."

Politico features its own Election Prediction Challenge, where strategists and scholars see things exactly the same way.

With Intrade predicting an 89.7% chance of an Obama victory going into the final day of trading (his highest price ever), where else can traders make money tomorrow? Check back later for Politickr's picks.

Don't Bet on Dems to Reach 60

Charlie Cook, appearing on Meet The Press this morning, predicted that Democrats will fall just short of the 60-seat filibuster-proof mark they're after in the Senate.

"I think they'll get to 59," he said, including the two independents who caucus with the Democrats in his tally.

Still, he was eager to hedge his bet. "Would I bet a dime on it? No," he said.

Predicting Obama's Chief Technology Officer

Intrade hasn't yet released its inevitable slew of contracts on the next president's possible cabinet appointments, but that hasn't stopped BusinessWeek from speculating about the names on Barack Obama's short list for Chief Technology Officer.

Obama, who pledged early on in his campaign to create the first cabinet-level position of Chief Technology Officer for the United States to expand broadband access and oversee a $50 billion venture fund for green technology, hasn't floated any names. BusinessWeek, however, citing Washington insiders, offered a few possibilities: 

• Vint Cerf, Google's chief internet evangelist
• Steve Ballmer, CEO of Microsoft
  
• Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon
• Ed Felten, computer science professor at Princeton

A quick check of Hubdub and Predictify revealed no current contracts about the US's first CTO, so let us know what you think in the comments.

Recreational traders can chime in on Hubdub about how many Republicans will be in Obama's cabinet, whether Gore will serve in the administration, and whether Warren Buffett will be appointed Treasury Secretary. At Predictify, the focus is on how many women will be in Obama's cabinet and whether Colin Powell will get a nod.

Will He or Won't He?

When Colin Powell appears on NBC's Meet the Press tomorrow, he's widely expected to endorse Barack Obama. Savvy traders, who currently peg the chance of Powell backing Barack  at 87.5 (nearly 5 points better than Barack Obama's own current stock price on Intrade), flocked to the stock yesterday afternoon.

Appearing on MSNBC's Hardball with Chris Matthews yesterday, Politico's Jonathan Martin said of a potential Powell endorsement: "It seems like it's a real distinct possibility." 

This morning's UK Telegraph isn't even hedging with its headline - "Colin Powell to Support Barack Obama" 

The paper quoted Col. Lawrence Wilkerson, Powell's confidante and former chief of staff, who explained the former Secretary of State's thought process: He is "extremely upset by the vitriol, bile, and prejudice" aimed at Obama on the campaign trail.

He also offered the following rationale: "He likes to make his decisions at the 60 percent point in terms of information and timing. Most people make a decision too quickly or too late, on the basis of too little information or having waited for all the information they are a day late and a dollar short."

Traders, of course, would argue that Powell missed the 60% point weeks ago, when McCain's stock tanked and Obama headed for the stratosphere on Intrade. But the same criticism of waiting for too much info, until they are "a day late and a dollar short" could be applied to traders themselves, who clearly missed a big buying opportunity on the Powell endorsement contract earlier in the week.

The question, then, is less whether Powell will back the first black president this weekend than it why traders waited so long to buy the contract. After all, Lawrence O'Donnell predicted an endorsement in his Huffington Post blog days ago. Much of the media has been speculating about this all week. Yet, Intrade never highlighted the contract on its homepage and most traders missed the stock when it was still a steal at 60 earlier this week.

Bottom Line - This episode illustrates the need for a solid equity research firm in the prediction market field to call out these buying opportunities before it's too late. There's clearly still an upside to buying the Powell endorsement contract, but if you're only now getting on board you clearly missed out on a lot of money.

Who's Behind Intrade Price Manipulation?

Someone has been keeping John McCain's stock, which had been plunging along with the Dow long before he ever invoked Joe the Plumber at the final debate, from sinking all the way down the drain. Intrade, which just revealed the results of its own internal investigation into the suspicious trading, fingered a single, rogue "institutional" trader for artificially inflating McCain's stock price and causing the mess. 

But even with a slew of major political news outlets now following the story, from CQ to Politico, there still seem to be more questions than answers. Why would a trader flush with funds sink hundreds of thousands of dollars into what surely looks to be a losing bet? Who could be behind the price manipulation?

A couple of theories seem to be emerging:

• In a post on Midas Oracle, one commentator suggested the culprit could be Centrist Messenger, the campaign advertising company that guarantees your money back if you bought an ad for the losing candidate. While it's apparent that the company has been hedging on Intrade, is it really possible that it's been spending hundreds of thousands of dollars on McCain just in case he pulls out a November surprise and it's forced to pay back devastated Obama supporters? 
• Clusterstock suggests that it could simply be a bullish McCain trader skeptical about the polls. While this may seem implausible on its face, it's important to remember the most dramatic Intrade success story reported in the media so far this year:

Just a couple of weeks ago, The Washington Post retold the story of Bethan Brome Lilija, a trader who risked $75,000 on McCain back when the Arizona Senator was low on money and had been left for dead by the pundits. On Intrade, his shares were down to around 5. 

John Stossel told the same story in his May 2008 report on 20/20.

Given Intrade CEO John Delaney's account of an "institutional" investor, the first scenario seems more likely. But at a time when the economy seems even gloomier than McCain's prospects, some traders are surely once again buying McCain for a buck and hoping to win the lottery.

 

Morning Prediction Roundup

Hillary Clinton heightens expectations: Asked whether Democrats will win in a landslide, she tells Good Morning America's Kate Snow "I think we're headed for a very big win." 

Joe Biden: We'll Win in West Virginia. "We're going to win in West Virginia," he said at an Ohio rally. "We're going to shock the living devil out of y'all." 

It may seem like pure bluster from Biden, but last week's ARG poll numbers suggest there could be something to his prediction. If you're convinced, this could be a buying opportunity: McCain currently leads on Intrade 60-36.

7-Eleven Predicts Huge Obama Win: Obama currently leads McCain 59-41 at the chain's stores, where those who support Obama can choose his blue coffee cup over McCain's red one. It's not exactly Intrade, but the 7-Eleven market has been surprisingly accurate over the last two presidential election cycles. In 2004, cup sales put Bush over Kerry by 2 points. In 2000, Bush led by a single percentage point. As for the bean race in the battleground states, Obama leads 61-39 in Virginia, but McCain is up 51-49 in N.C. and 53-47 in New Hampshire.

Scholastic News: McCain Should Worry. In a large poll conducted by Scholastic News of kids between pre-K and 12th grade, Obama won 57-39. Sure, that's Obama's vocal base. But USA Today puts the poll in context: student voters have been right 15 of the last 17 times. "The student voters - about 250,000 this year - have an 88% prediction rate. Only twice since 1940 have their results been at odds with the nation's: in 1948, when Harry Truman defeated Thomas Dewey, and in 1960, when John F. Kennedy beat Richard Nixon."

Will MSNBC's Chris Matthews Run for Senate in 2010? Politico keeps up the speculation.

At the open: Obama - 80; McCain - 20